El Niño 2026: What it means for West Coast fishing

El Niño is projected to return to the West Coast this winter, bringing wet, warm weather and lots of it.

This massive weather pattern will have drastic effects on fishing, from freshwater lakes all the way out to sea. Some of your favorite species will follow new, temporary migration patterns and sporadic spawning runs, while others will move into completely new territory.

We break down what this year’s El Niño means for West Coast anglers and how to adjust your game plan before your next trip.

The Pacific Ocean is about to get chaotic. A strong El Niño is predicted this winter, bringing warmer sea temperatures, wet weather in some areas and drought in others. The dramatic shift in temperatures can wreak havoc on fisheries and anglers alike. Warm dead zones, species traveling outside their normal ranges and freshwater level fluctuations all create problems and opportunities for West Coast anglers.

Below, we cover the biggest issues El Niño brings and how to plan for them.

What El Niño actually is El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in which surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm well above normal. On the West Coast, it usually means a wetter winter for California and a warmer, often drier winter for the Pacific Northwest.

What can happen? In a word, lots. Warmer water cuts off the cold, nutrient-rich water that feeds the ocean food chain. That can turn productive waters into “marine deserts” with little bait, which hits fishery yields hard and pushes sensitive fish to find new feeding grounds.

Why this one matters This El Niño could be one for the record books. In mid-October, sea temperatures in NOAA’s key monitoring zone were running 2.4°C (4.3°F) above normal. Farther east, near South America, they were more than 3°C above normal. NOAA favors a wetter winter for California, so heavy rain and flooding are a real risk there.

Warm water brings visitors Yellowtail, dorado, yellowfin tuna, wahoo and even marlin can show up farther north along the West Coast and stay much later than usual. These species follow the warm water north, and it’s not unheard of for them to turn up in some surprising places.

A slower year up north Warm surface water can mean less food off Oregon and Washington. That can hurt salmon and rockfish fishing and even Dungeness crabbing, and several salmon runs are already struggling as it is.

Rivers, rain and steelhead California often gets a wetter winter, which can mean strong river surges that push steelhead runs upriver. The Pacific Northwest, however, often runs warmer and drier. Lower snowpack and river levels there can keep spawning steelhead from moving upstream. The trick is to watch your gauges like a hawk. Look for a spike followed by a gentle drop.

Gear and tactics for a warm water year What’s good for a chinook or striper won’t necessarily appeal to a wandering yellowtail. If you’re targeting species outside their normal range, load up on different lures and baits. Anglers in heavy rainfall areas will need heavier weights to handle rising water levels.

Check the rules before you goEl Niño years can bring in-season changes, like salmon, crab or steelhead closures. New limits on species outside their normal range can also kick in, so check the regulations for updates before every trip.

Track it with Fishbrain Use catch logs and water forecasts to see when and where the warm-water species start showing up. Whatever this winter throws at you, remember there's no such thing as bad weather, only soft anglers. Use Fishbrain to scout, monitor and prepare for any volatile weather systems building this winter and try to stay one step ahead by fishing smarter.

Now let’s go fishing. You may want to bring a rain jacket.

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